(12-16-10) Outlook for Next Week

The freezing rain event is now over for the Dubois County area. All in all we had about a quarter of an inch of ice accumulate on the roadways here. Conditions were slick and the schools closed for good reason. Now we turn our attention to next storm heading our way. It does look like we'll have a break from the winter weather for a few days. The weekend looks to be nice, just really cold.

Monday and Tuesday will usher in another round of wintry weather into our area. At this time, the models are making it out to be an all snow event. I see no indication that we'll be getting another freezing rain/sleet system into our area like this one last night was. The big difference will be the direction this system is coming from. This next system looks to have its center to our north and it'll probably be a wrap-around snow type of deal similar to the last snow we had on Dec 12th. The main difference here is that this system looks to have quite a bit more moisture to work with.

It's way to early to start talking about definite amounts for what to expect. If the current models verified, we'd easily get five inches of snow out of this next system, but I think it's way too early to start believing these models. For starters, this system has not even formed yet. It's expected to form over Idaho on Sunday afternoon. The jet stream will then give it ample fuel and it'll be in our area by Monday night/Tuesday morning. We'll really need to wait to see if we see a trend with the future model runs and it's also possible this system could change storm tracks dramatically this far out. This is still five days out. The higher resolution models won't even begin picking this system up for a couple of days. Right now we're relying solely on a long-range model for this data. A lot can change over the next couple of days. I'll keep an eye on this system and blog more about it as time gets closer.

What about Christmas? Right now it looks to be very cold with temperatures only in the mid to upper 20s. It doesn't appear that we'll see any accumulating snow unless something changes. Some flurries are showing up on the models, but nothing that will stick. So travel will be OK.

Here's your updated 7 Day Forecast.

Pictures from 12-16-2010 Ice Storm

Pictures from my house in Huntingburg the morning of the ice storm.

(12-15-10) Winter Storm Warning in Effect

As expected, we've now been upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning in effect until 1pm Thursday. The last few model runs since yesterday have started to trend a bit warmer in our area, seeming to put the rain/snow changeover line to our north. It's now looking like Dubois County will get a fair amount of freezing precipitation.

So what can we expect? Tonight temperatures will stay nearly steady. At 6pm it's 28F and we'll stay in the upper 20s through most of the night, possibly rising to near freezing by morning. Right now the temperatures in the mid-atmosphere (around the 850mb level) have not risen above freezing. As warmer air surges in from the south overnight into that layer, expect it to go above freezing and produce freezing rain for us. In fact, the National Weather Service has placed us under a moderate risk for freezing rain. What this means is that we'll likely start out as an all snow event and then transition to a snow/sleet mixture before changing over to all freezing rain sometime overnight.

So how much can we expect? It appears that we'll have plenty of QPF to work with. QPF is Quantitative Precipitation Forecast and it is a graphic the National Weather Service puts out to give forcasters an idea of how much precip to expect. It puts our area in the 0.25 - 0.5 inch range. Remember this is liquid, so we have to convert to snow using a 10:1 ratio for wet snow. If it were all snow, we'd be in the 2.5 - 5 inch range. Since it won't be all snow, it's really going to depend on how much falls initially as snow and when the changeover occurs. It's highly likely that we could see some heavy snow showers at the outset of this event as it moves into our area overnight. That could give us a quick 1-2 inches of snow, followed by a solid quarter inch of ice in the form of sleet and freezing rain. This storm is really tricky to predict and really the best way at this point is to stop looking at the models and see what actually happens in Kentucky in a few hours. That will give us a solid idea of what to expect.

As for the rest of the week, it will be cold. Friday looks to be a gloomy day with highs in the upper 20s. The weekend looks dry overall, with just a passing flurry or two. Nothing significant, but highs will only be in the upper 20s again. In fact the whole 7 day outlook looks to be well below normal for us in temps. Lows will be in the teens throughout the forcast.

(12-14-10) Mid-week Winter Storm Update

Another winter storm is on the way to the tri-state area and this one looks very messy! Whereas the storm over the weekend brought light, powdery snow with liquid to snow ratios of 20:1, this next storm will be a wintry mix of sleet, freezing rain and wet snow. The good news is that this system appears to be a fairly fast moving, short lived system. Still this one could be one to watch, as road conditions on Thursday could get very hazardous.

Right now a low is forming over the Oklahoma panhandle and is predicted to move into the Tennessee Valley overnight on Wednesday and into Thursday. While temperatures here at the surface will stay below or near freezing, as the winds shift to the south, temperatures aloft in the upper layers of the atmosphere will rise into the 30s, producing sleet, freezing rain and wet snow over our area.

So what can we expect? The further north you go, the better off you will be. Here in Dubois County, I don't think freezing rain will be a major play at this time. The latest models are showing the freezing rain south of the Ohio River. Right now if these current models verify, we're looking at a sleet/snow event. Don't expect much in accumulations. Just expect a mess! South of here, look for freezing rain and sleet changing over to an all rain event in Kentucky.

So what can we expect as a timeline? The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for our area, effective at 7pm Wednesday evening going through Thursday. It looks like the bulk of the precip will start after dark on Wednesday, with the main event between 5am - Noon on Thursday. No matter what we get, when we get it, it's gonna be a mess! Stay safe out there. I'll have more updates tomorrow. For now, here's your updated 7 day outlook.

(12-13-10) Wintry Mix Possible on Wednesday

With one storm system now behind us, another lies in wait. Huntingburg received about an inch and a half of light, fluffy snow on Sunday. With winds howling in the 20s mph range, road conditions were quite hazardous Sunday evening and into Monday morning. Those winds should be dying down later today as bitter cold temperatures are on the way. The low cloud base will recede later today as we move to an overnight low of 5 degrees!

As this system races off to the east, we now turn our attention to the next round of wintry precipitation heading our way on Wednesday. A new low is trying to form over the Rocky Mountains and is forecast to move to our south Wednesday night and into the day on Thursday. As the high pressure that is in charge of us right now pushes eastward, expect slightly warmer temperatures to move into the area, pushing us near the freezing mark. Warm air from the south will also infiltrate the upper layers of the atmosphere, which means that precipitation could come in the form of sleet or even freezing rain. Expect hazardous road conditions again on Wednesday and Thursday if this scenario pans out.

I'll have more on what to expect later today or tomorrow as more model runs come out. Right now it looks to be a mess. We'll see if the next runs continue this trend. Saturday also looks to be in question. I'm going with a 30% chance of snow at this point. Hopefully the next models will take this away!

For right now, here's your updated 7 day outlook.

(12-11-10) Dry Slot Now Visible

As predicted by the models I discussed earlier, a nice dry slot is setting up behind the cold front. A dry slot is a pocket of relatively low moisture in the atmosphere caused by a low sucking in cold air from Canada. This can be seen clearly in the water vapor image below. I've placed a Low on the spot where the low currently sits. The white images you see are not clouds, but rather water vapor in the atmosphere. Water vapor in large quantitites is needed to form any significant weather system. The brighter the white, the more the vapor is present. You can see that this system is bright white along the cold front and the Low. But you can also see a darker swath of air coming into the center of the low pressure. This represents the absense of moisture.

Lows move in a counter-clockwise direction and essentially its sucking down cold, dry air from Canada into this low. This is partly why the cold front will be so impressive, bringing significantly colder temperatures to our area once it passes. This is the dry slot I've been talking about. This can also be seen by looking at the radar image below. Rain is only infront of the cold front and none behind.

What does this mean for us? It means that we shouldn't get much in the way of snow accumulation overnight once the front passes. I expect we will see some, but it won't be much and this will drastically cut down on our totals.

(12-11-10) Winter Weather Advisory Issued

As expected, the Louisville National Weather Service has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for Dubois County and all the Louisville NWS area. The Paducah office has chosen to issue just a statement rather than an advisory.

The text of Advisory in effect for Dubois County is below:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
301 PM EST SAT DEC 11 2010

...PERIODS OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

.A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FALL QUICKLY...CHANGING
THE RAIN OVER TO A WINTRY MIX AND FINALLY TO SNOW BY SUNDAY
MORNING. THERE WILL THEN BE A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION BEFORE
MOISTURE FILTERS BACK IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. PERIODS OF SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
ADDITIONALLY...WINDS WILL PICK UP SUNDAY MORNING WITH GUSTY WINDS
CAUSING BLOWING SNOW WITH VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS.

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-121000-
/O.NEW.KLMK.WW.Y.0014.101212T0600Z-101213T1800Z/
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...
JASPER...MARENGO...TELL CITY...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...
JEFFERSONVILLE...HAWESVILLE...HARDINSBURG...BRANDENBURG...
BEAVER DAM...LEITCHFIELD...ELIZABETHTOWN...FORT KNOX...
MOUNT WASHINGTON...SHEPHERDSVILLE...LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...
BEDFORD...NEW CASTLE...SHELBYVILLE...FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN...
CYNTHIANA...TAYLORSVILLE...LAWRENCEBURG...VERSAILLES...
LEXINGTON...PARIS...CARLISLE...BARDSTOWN...SPRINGFIELD...
HARRODSBURG...NICHOLASVILLE...WINCHESTER...HODGENVILLE...
LEBANON...DANVILLE...LANCASTER...RICHMOND...MORGANTOWN...
BROWNSVILLE...MUNFORDVILLE...GREENSBURG...CAMPBELLSVILLE...
LIBERTY...STANFORD...RUSSELLVILLE...BOWLING GREEN...FRANKLIN...
SCOTTSVILLE...GLASGOW...TOMPKINSVILLE...EDMONTON...COLUMBIA...
JAMESTOWN...BURKESVILLE...ALBANY
301 PM EST SAT DEC 11 2010 /201 PM CST SAT DEC 11 2010/

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/
SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM
1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ MONDAY.

* TIMING: AS COLD AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT
RAIN WILL CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BETWEEN 7AM
AND NOON EST SUNDAY MORNING AS DRYING MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
SNOW CHANCES WILL INCREASE AREA WIDE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING AS PRECIPITATION WRAPS AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM.

* MAIN IMPACT: LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO HALF AN INCH WILL
BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO THREE INCHES
OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 MPH WITH WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH. THIS
WILL CAUSE BLOWING SNOW WHICH MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT TIMES
CAUSING TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES.

* OTHER IMPACTS: TEMPERATURES WILL FALL QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT
TONIGHT. A WINTRY MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION
CHANGES TO ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION ANY WATER REMAINING
ON AREA ROADS OVERNIGHT COULD FREEZE FORMING BLACK ICE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW
WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLOWING SNOW MEANS THAT
VISIBILITIES WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO STRONG WINDS BLOWING SNOW
AROUND. USE CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS.