The latest model guidance is trending warmer for next week, which is a good thing. For the past three days, the model output statistics (MOS - a numerical prediction of high temps) have trended warmer for our area. Monday's MOS has went from 35 to 37 all the way up to 39 on this last run. I stil don't think it's accounting for the snow that's still on the ground in our area, but I do like the trend, though I doubt we'll see 39 on Monday. I'd say 35 is more likely.
These latest models have also shown a dramatic shift in the tracking of the surface low coming into our area next week. Yesterdays model was sort of apocalyptic in some ways, with the low tracking to our north and 5 or so inches of snow in our area. This latest model tracks the low south of us and puts us with a light snow event to start and then changing over to plain 'ol rain by the end of it. So which will it be? I'm hoping for the latter, as I'm sick of snow! I'll wait for the model runs to come out again later tonight and tomorrow. If it keeps trending south of us, I'll be able to fine tune the forecast more. South of us would also send us warmer air, lending more toward rain.
To get an idea of what I'm talking about, here's a small part of these past two GFSX 0Z Models from yesterday on the left and today on the right. You can see how the low was predicted to be in Illinois at 7am on Tuesday. The latest model takes it into Arkansas at 7am on Tuesday. This would be a dramatic shift in what we would get with this system! You can also notice that the low was forecasted to be at 1006mb and the new one takes it to 1014mb. This means it would be weaker, with less fuel to work with and much less wind for us. All in all the new set up is much nicer!
These latest models have also shown a dramatic shift in the tracking of the surface low coming into our area next week. Yesterdays model was sort of apocalyptic in some ways, with the low tracking to our north and 5 or so inches of snow in our area. This latest model tracks the low south of us and puts us with a light snow event to start and then changing over to plain 'ol rain by the end of it. So which will it be? I'm hoping for the latter, as I'm sick of snow! I'll wait for the model runs to come out again later tonight and tomorrow. If it keeps trending south of us, I'll be able to fine tune the forecast more. South of us would also send us warmer air, lending more toward rain.
To get an idea of what I'm talking about, here's a small part of these past two GFSX 0Z Models from yesterday on the left and today on the right. You can see how the low was predicted to be in Illinois at 7am on Tuesday. The latest model takes it into Arkansas at 7am on Tuesday. This would be a dramatic shift in what we would get with this system! You can also notice that the low was forecasted to be at 1006mb and the new one takes it to 1014mb. This means it would be weaker, with less fuel to work with and much less wind for us. All in all the new set up is much nicer!
Now for what everyone is really thinking about - Christmas! What will it be like? Below is the current model run for Christmas day. You can see it's showing a bit of snow activity on a broad level in our area. This would be light snow showers/flurries. No major system around us, just a small dip in the jet stream over our area that might spark up a few things. Cold NW winds will push highs only into the 20s on Christmas.
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