Well, some people are anyway! If you're a snow lover, this could be the storm for you. Sorry to be so slow in updating this. I've had a pretty busy week and all my family including me have colds, but plan to blog more over the next few days as the storm approaches.
It's looking like we'll almost certainly have a white Christmas this year. The models are in disagreement on the exact timing of the system, but almost all models are now agreeing on a southern track for this low moving in. Some have it near Tenneesee and other have it near Alabama. Either way, it appears we will be all snow. Just how much snow we get will depend on the exact track, with more with a Tenneesee track and less the further south it goes.
Right now the system is just moving onto the west coast and as it moves on over the next day, we'll be able to get more data points into the models. There aren't many data points over the ocean! With more data on this system, the models will come into much more agreement and we'll have a better feel for what to expect.
One thing worthy of note is that over the last few model runs, the forecasted snow has continued to increase. Consider the graphic below. The graphic on the left is the snow accumulation predictions from the GFS model at 7pm last night (0Z). The one on the right is the same model at 1pm today (18Z).
In just a few short model runs, it has went from about 1 inch in our area to 5 inches! Yikes! Again, this is just preliminary and may well change, but it serves as a good warning that we need to take caution. This will likely be one of the busiest travel weekends of the year and this storm could well have a major effect on travel plans for many people. I suspect that the National Weather Service will be issuing winter storm advisories and/or warnings for our area in the next day or so as we get closer to this event.
Much of what we get will depend on how the jet stream acts out for us. Right now there is a strong high pressure system in Canada that will be acting as a blocking mechanism for us, keeping this winter storm on a southerly track. How strong this blocking mechanism is will depend on how far south this storm is pushed. Also, the southern track and northern track of the jet streams are predicted to phase together, increasing the strength of this winter storm. If that phasing happens over the plains, expect a stornger system with more snow for us. If that phasing happens over the deep south, expect a weaker system for us with less snow. I think the models will get a better handle on this over the next day or so as the system moves onshore.
Let's talk about a timeline for this event. Right now I'm thinking that most of the snow will not begin until Friday afternoon. The low will be moving to our south during this time frame and will pull in some significant moisture for us. How much is yet to be determined, but I do think it will be signifcant enough to cause travel problems Friday evening and night. Snow will get heavy at times and last overnight into Christmas morning. As the low moves off to the east and out to the Atlantic Ocean on Christmas day, expect snow to taper off and light snow showers to continue into Sunday as wrap-around moisture comes into play. Overall I'd say 3-4 inches or more is not out of question if these current model solutions verify.
Next week looks to be quite cold! As this system moves out to sea, it could turn into quite a noreaster for the New England area. That will turn our winds around to the north and push bitter cold temperatures back into our area. Also taking into consideration the snow pack from this system that will still be on the ground, we won't get out of the 20s for the first half of next week. The long range model also have a winter storm moving in over the New Year's Eve timeframe. It's too soon to predict anything definite, but it could be quite a system if it verifies out.
For now, here's your updated 7 day forecast.
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