Updated Snow Map

The latest 00z model runs from the NAM and GFS have started to take quite a varying path. Somebody is going to get some major snow! It's a question of who at this point. On the left you find the NAM and the GFS to the right. The dark blue indicates greater than 0.5" liquid precip. The NAM takes this right into the heart of our area, while the GFS has pushed it further north the past two model runs. Frankly it's a little late in the game to be pushing a system over 100 miles north of where it has been for several runs consistently. There could be many explanations for this, but it'll be interesting to see if the next runs due out later overnight track it back south again. I tend to believe the NAM is more reliable at this point.

Because of the updated last three model runs, I am going to have to up my snow totals. Models are all in agreement that somebody is going to get a heavy band of snow. The H5 low is now poised to go just south of Louisville and that would set us up in the perfect zone for the heavy snow. With a clipper system, the heaviest bands of snow usually occur just north of upper low. It would not be a shock to see some spots get greater than 7" with this system. A good swath of 3-5" still seems likely for much of the area.