Winter Storm Watch Sun 4pm - Mon 7pm

Latest QPF maps from the HPC also shows increased moisture with this H5 closed low. The dark blue indicates greater than 0.5" liquid precip and the brighter blue greater than 0.75" liquid. This confirms that narrow banding we see so often with clipper systems.

From the NWS in INDIANAPOLIS:

VERY HIGH Q VECTOR DIVERGENCE OVER SOUTHERN CWA FROM TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY...WHICH CORRESPONDS TO STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT AT LEVEL 285.
ALSO TROWAL EXPECTED TO BE OVER SAME AREA...AND AT 925 MB SEE BAND
OF RELATIVELY HIGH EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMPERATURES ADVECTING IN.

TAKEN TOGETHER...THIS SUGGESTS RELATIVELY HEAVY SNOW WILL
FALL...ESPECIALLY WHERE TROWAL AND HIGH EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL
TEMPERATURES LINE UP. AS OFTEN WITH TROWALS...THIS BAND MAY BE
NARROW.

AVERAGE PRECIPITABLE WATER SOUTHERN CWA OVER THE PERIOD ABOUT THREE
TENTHS OF AN INCH...WHICH MORE OR LESS CORRESPONDS TO MODEL QPF. DUE
TO RELATIVELY COLD TEMPERATURES OVER AREA AGREE WITH BUFKIT WE MAY
SEE LIQUID SNOW RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO ONE...

If Bufkit is right and we get a 20:1 ratio, that 0.84 precip around Louisville would mean 16.8" snow!! Bear in mind that not all of this will fall as a 20:1 ratio. That ratio will settle in as colder weather moves in with the H5 low after the surface low and associated cold front passes mid-day on Sunday. Still think that a good solid band of 5-7" with locally higher amounts over Dubois, Crawford, Pike and counties along that east-west line is a good call.

NWS in Louisville has issued a Winter Storm Watch for nearly all counties bordering the Ohio River. It appears as though a Winter Weather Advisory will likely be issued tomorrow or overnight. Might not also be surprised if that was even upgraded to a warning at some point.

EXPECT SNOW INTENSITY TO START PICKING UP LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...
THUS HAVE STARTED A WINTER WEATHER WATCH AT 4 PM SUNDAY. FOR AREAL
COVERAGE...HAVE THE HIGHEST TOTALS OVER THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE CWA AND THUS THE PLACEMENT OF THE WATCH FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN
TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES. THESE AREAS LIKELY WILL GET AN ADVISORY
ISSUED EITHER TONIGHT OR TOMORROW FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.