If you've been following the forecast for the past few days, you will no dobut have seen much variation in what is expected to fall on our area over the weekend. The graphic at left shows the reason why.
Depending on which model you go with, different results are given. Most models were predicting a more southerly track and the latest models are now taking the center of the incoming Low pressure area about 200 miles more north than they were taking it! Keep in mind that this is only one model run showing the far north scenario and should be taken lightly at this point. We'll need to wait to see if future runs show this or if it goes south again. It could just be a hickup in the data.
I still like the GFS Model Run from 0Z on Wed. It seems to be a reasonable scenario among all the differing models. This run takes the Low through the center of Kentucky and into Ohio, shown on the yellow line in the graphic above. The top blue line shows the varying northerly track given by the latest 0Z model run last night. The bottom blue line shows the more southerly track, which some models have also hinted at. This track would result in a major snow storm for us, but seems unlikely at this point.
So what's the take away from all of this? At this point, I am going to forecast rain on Saturday with highs in the 40s. That rain will change over to snow during the overnight hours into Sunday morning, with lingering snow throughout the day on Sunday. At this point, snow accumulations appear to be minor for Huntingburg, somewhere in the 1-3" area. I'd say three would be pushing it if this track holds out.
The big story may not be the snow coming our way, but the winds that will be associated with this deepening system. Some models have the Low moving into our area near the 999mb range, which means there will be quite a steep pressure gradient associated with this system. The steeper the gradient, the stronger the winds. Sunday will turn out to be quite a blustery day and if the models hold up, it's looking like we could see winds sustained in the 20+mph range, with gusts into the 30s. Whatever snow we do get will get blown around, making driving conditions unfavorable.
I look for winter weather advisories to be issued in the next couple of days. Once the models runs come out tonight, I'll have a better idea of how this system is shaping up. Right now the initial wave is in the Pacific Ocean, moving into the Northwest Coast area. With few weather buoys in the area, once the system moves on shore and more data points are available for entry into the models, look for us to have a much clearer picture of what is going to happen. In the next 24 hours we would be able to start fine tuning the forecast and getting a clear picture of the tracking and the potential snow totals. I'll update more once the next models come out.
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